Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden at the moment are the presumptive nominees for the Republican and Democratic events, and their respective information as president and their marketing campaign platforms recommend very different visions for the way forward for U.S. well being care. This new KFF Well being Monitoring Ballot seems at voters’ views of a number of the nation’s main well being and entitlement applications and the way these views line up with the candidates’ approaches to those points based mostly on their observe information, coverage positions, and statements on the marketing campaign path. Whereas earlier polls present that many different points outrank well being care on voters’ minds this election cycle (and points are just one a part of how voters make selections), these findings assist illustrate how voters might react to speaking factors about well being care that the candidates might make throughout the course of the marketing campaign.
Key Takeaways
- Six months out from the 2024 presidential election, partisans predictably put extra belief in their very own occasion’s candidate on well being points, however President Biden has a transparent belief benefit over former President Trump with impartial voters, a key voting group, on many areas of well being care. For instance, in the case of addressing excessive well being care prices, a problem that rises to the top of many voters’ priority lists, whereas neither candidate has a majority of belief amongst impartial voters, Biden has a bonus over Trump (39% v. 26%), with 34% of impartial voters saying they belief neither candidate on this challenge.
- Most voters total are nonetheless unaware of the Medicare drug pricing provisions within the Inflation Discount Act (IRA) that President Biden signed into legislation, however consciousness is larger and has elevated since November amongst older voters and amongst Biden’s base of Democratic voters. Giant shares of voters throughout partisan teams additionally assist Biden’s proposals to increase a number of the IRA’s drug provisions to cowl all adults with personal insurance coverage, together with capping month-to-month prices for insulin and putting a restrict on out-of-pocket prescription drug prices. Voters are additionally supportive of increasing the Medicare prescription drug worth negotiation of the IRA to cowl a bigger variety of medicine, with three-quarters saying extra medicine must be topic to cost negotiations, together with majorities throughout partisanship.
- Whereas most voters are supportive of the proposals President Biden has made for addressing prescription drug prices, most are pessimistic about what both candidate would accomplish on this space if elected. Amongst impartial voters, Biden has a slight edge, with half saying it’s possible that his administration’s insurance policies will decrease prescription drug prices if he’s elected, in comparison with about 4 in ten who say the identical about Trump.
- Concerning abortion coverage, a key voting issue for Democratic and younger voters on this election, a majority of voters (62%) assist guaranteeing a federal proper to abortion whereas fewer (42%) assist leaving it as much as particular person states to determine the legality of abortion. Majorities of Democratic voters and stronghold Democratic teams similar to younger voters and Black voters are supportive of a federal assure, whereas a majority of Republican voters assist leaving the legality of abortion as much as particular person states. Notably, assist amongst Democratic voters for a federal assure (89%) is larger than assist amongst Republican voters for leaving abortion coverage as much as the states (60%).
- In the case of figuring out the way forward for the nation’s main entitlement applications – Social Safety, Medicare, and Medicaid – older voters give a transparent benefit to President Biden. Majorities of voters are nervous that, sooner or later, folks lined by Medicare, Social Safety, and Medicaid gained’t be capable to get the identical degree of advantages which might be out there at this time, and plenty of additionally agree that fraud, waste, and abuse are issues in these applications, which is a criticism that former President Trump has made. For context, most voters additionally see fraud, waste, and abuse as a significant downside in personal medical health insurance plans.
- Requested about the way forward for Medicaid, seven in ten voters need Medicaid to largely proceed as it’s at this time, whereas three in ten assist altering Medicaid to cap federal funding and provides states better flexibility in designing their applications (a recurrent Republican proposal generally known as a Medicaid block grant). Whereas giant shares of Democratic and impartial voters want to maintain Medicaid as it’s at this time, Republican voters are evenly divided, with about half preferring to maintain Medicaid as is and half supporting a cap on federal spending.
- Whereas a majority of voters have favorable views of the ACA, attitudes in direction of the legislation total proceed to be marked by partisanship. One-third of Republican voters now view the legislation favorably (up from 11% when the legislation was handed), however three-quarters of Republican voters say they’d assist “repealing and changing” the ACA. Earlier polling and previous repeal efforts have proven that public assist for repeal erodes significantly when in style provisions just like the protections for folks with pre-existing situations are put in danger, so whereas these views don’t essentially suggest enduring assist for repealing the ACA, they do recommend there may be some receptivity amongst Republican voters for “repeal and exchange” as a speaking level. Notably, about 4 in ten Republican voters assume Trump will attempt to repeal the complete ACA if elected, in comparison with two-thirds of Democratic voters.
- Regardless of divided views on the ACA total, there may be majority assist for strengthening one key piece of the ACA: about seven in ten voters – together with majorities throughout partisanship – assist extending enhanced monetary help for individuals who buy well being protection by way of the ACA market. Presently, enhanced subsidies that have been offered lately are set to run out on the finish of 2025.
Biden Has Belief Benefit On Many Areas of Well being Care, However Trump Ties On Addressing Excessive Prices
In the case of belief of the presumptive 2024 presidential candidates, bigger shares of voters belief President Joe Biden than former President Donald Trump on several key health care policy issues, however neither candidate has a transparent lead in the case of addressing excessive well being care prices, with related shares of voters saying they belief Biden (38%) and Trump (36%).
Not surprisingly, voters are break up alongside occasion strains of their belief of the presumptive candidates on well being care points, with Democrats largely trusting Biden over Trump and Republicans trusting Trump over Biden. Nonetheless, even amongst partisans, substantial shares say they belief “neither” candidate on some well being care points. For instance, about one in 5 Democratic voters and Republican voters say they belief “neither” candidate to deal with excessive well being care prices.
Unbiased voters usually tend to say they belief Biden greater than Trump in every are of well being care, together with addressing care prices. Biden has a notable belief lead amongst impartial voters in the case of figuring out the way forward for the ACA (49% v. 23%), guaranteeing entry to reasonably priced medical health insurance (47% v. 22%), and sustaining protections for folks with pre-existing well being situations (47% v. 23%) and a considerable lead on figuring out the way forward for Medicare (44% v. 23%) and Medicaid (44% v. 24%). In the case of addressing excessive well being care prices, impartial voters give the sting to Biden, with 4 in ten (39%) saying they belief him extra in comparison with 1 / 4 (26%) for Trump. Nevertheless, a 3rd (34%) of impartial voters say they don’t belief both candidate.
Voters’ Views in Key Well being Coverage Areas
Prescription Drug Costs
Reducing prescription drug costs has been a frequent speaking level of each President Biden and former President Trump. Whereas Trump stored drug costs on the political agenda throughout his time as president, his administration in the end did little to comprise them. President Biden has touted passage of the Inflation Discount Act (IRA), together with its provisions geared toward reducing prescription drug costs for folks with Medicare, as one of many signature achievements of his administration.
Most voters total are unaware of the Medicare drug pricing provisions within the IRA, however consciousness is larger amongst older voters and amongst Biden’s base of voters who establish as Democrats. Total, a few third of voters appropriately say there’s a federal legislation in place that requires the federal authorities to barter the worth of some prescribed drugs for folks with Medicare (36%) or one which caps the price of insulin for folks with Medicare (35%), whereas a few quarter (27%) know there’s a legislation that limits annual out-of-pocket prescription drug prices for folks with Medicare and one in seven (14%) know there’s a legislation that penalizes drug corporations for rising costs for Medicare quicker than the speed of inflation.
Consciousness of those provisions is larger amongst voters ages 65 and older – a gaggle that’s largely lined by Medicare and tends to vote at larger charges than youthful adults. About half (52%) of older voters are conscious of the IRA’s $35 cap on insulin for folks with Medicare and the same share (48%) appropriately establish that there’s a legislation that requires the federal authorities to barter the worth of prescribed drugs for Medicare enrollees.
Throughout partisans, fewer than half of Democrats, independents, and Republican voters are conscious of any of those well being care provisions. Nevertheless, Democratic voters are extra possible than Republican voters to appropriately say there’s a legislation that caps the price of insulin for folks with Medicare at $35 per 30 days (46% v. 28%) or requires the federal authorities to barter the worth of some prescribed drugs for folks with Medicare (43% v. 32%).
Voter consciousness of the IRA’s $35 insulin cap for folks with Medicare has elevated by about seven share factors since November 2023 when a few quarter (28%) of voters have been conscious of this provision of the IRA. Consciousness of the IRA’s different Medicare drug pricing provisions has not modified considerably amongst all voters since November, however there have been will increase in consciousness of some provisions amongst Democratic voters and older voters, suggesting that Biden’s campaigning on the successes of the IRA could also be breaking by way of with some teams.
Amongst Democratic voters, between November 2023 and Could 2024 there was a 12 share level improve within the share appropriately establish the cap on insulin (from 34% to 46%) and an 8 share level uptick in consciousness of the legislation putting limits on out-of-pocket prescription drug prices for folks with Medicare (from 24% to 32%). Equally, amongst voters ages 65 and older, the share who’re conscious there’s a federal legislation that limits annual out-of-pocket prescription drug prices for folks with Medicare elevated from 27% to 40% between November and Could, the share who’re conscious of the negotiation provision elevated from 36% to 48%, and the share who’re conscious there’s a legislation that penalizes drug corporations for rising costs quicker than the speed of inflation for folks with Medicare from 9% to fifteen%.
President Biden has expressed support for a number of insurance policies that might lengthen a number of the prescription drug provisions of the IRA to cowl all adults with personal insurance coverage. The KFF Well being Monitoring Ballot finds that giant shares of voters assist these proposals, together with capping month-to-month out-of-pocket prices for insulin for all adults with medical health insurance (86%) and putting a restrict on out-of-pocket prescription drug prices for all adults with medical health insurance (84%).
Giant majorities throughout partisans assist each drug pricing provisions, together with almost 9 in ten Democratic voters (88%) and Republican voters (89%) who assist capping out-of-pocket prices for insulin and related shares who assist putting an out-of-pocket restrict on prescription drug prices (85% of Democrats and 87% of Republicans).
Voters are additionally supportive of increasing the Medicare prescription drug worth negotiation of the IRA to cowl a bigger variety of medicine. Underneath the legislation, negotiated costs will take impact for 10 prescribed drugs in 2026, rising to a complete of 60 medicine by 2029. Three-quarters (75%) of voters say the legislation must be expanded by rising the variety of medicine topic to cost negotiation. One other 15% assume the legislation must be stored as is, whereas one in ten (10%) voters need the legislation to be repealed.
Among the many greatest proponents for growth of the drug worth negotiation side of Medicare are these ages 65 and older (80% need the legislation to be expanded) and Democratic (79%) and impartial (80%) voters. Nevertheless, a majority of Republicans (68%) additionally agree that the legislation must be expanded.
Whereas most voters are supportive of the proposals President Biden has made for addressing prescription drug prices, most are pessimistic about what both candidate would accomplish on this space if elected, with fewer than half saying it’s “very” or “considerably” possible that Biden’s insurance policies would decrease prescription drug prices for folks on Medicare (47%) or for everybody (43%) if he have been re-elected. About 4 in ten voters say the identical about former President Trump (41% for folks with Medicare, 40% for everybody).
Not surprisingly, majorities of partisans say they assume it’s possible their occasion’s respective candidate will decrease drug prices if elected, whereas few say the identical concerning the different occasion’s candidate. Amongst impartial voters, about half assume it’s possible that Biden’s insurance policies would decrease prescription drug prices for folks with Medicare (52%) or for everybody (48%), whereas barely fewer say the identical about Trump (39% and 37%, respectively).
Abortion Coverage
The March KFF Health Tracking Poll offered an intensive have a look at voters’ views of abortion and the function it could play within the upcoming election. On this ballot we study voter assist for 2 approaches to abortion coverage for which President Biden and former President Trump have voiced assist. President Biden has expressed support for a federal right to abortion whereas former President Donald Trump has said that abortion policies should be left to the states. In the case of abortion coverage – a key voting issue for Democratic and younger voters on this election – a majority of voters (62%) assist guaranteeing a federal proper to abortion whereas fewer (42%) assist leaving it as much as particular person states to determine the legality of abortion.
About 9 in ten (89%) Democratic voters assist guaranteeing a federal proper to abortion in comparison with about six in ten impartial voters (62%) and one-third of Republican voters (34%). Conversely, about six in ten Republican voters assist leaving abortion as much as particular person states in comparison with 42% of impartial voters and 1 / 4 (26%) of Democratic voters.
Those that plan on voting for Biden in 2024 (90%), Democrats (89%), younger voters ages 18-29 (79%), and Black voters (78%) are among the many largest teams in assist of guaranteeing a federal proper to abortion. Majorities of those that plan to vote for Trump in 2024 (63%) and Republican voters (60%), assist leaving abortion as much as particular person states.
Well being and Entitlement Applications
Moreover problems with prescribed drugs costs for Medicare, there are indicators that Trump and Biden would method the way forward for the nation’s main well being and entitlement applications otherwise if elected. Majorities of voters have a good opinion of the main entitlement applications, with a minimum of three in 4 voters saying they’ve a “very” or “considerably” favorable opinion of Medicare (80%), Social Safety (78%), and Medicaid (75%). A smaller share of voters – however nonetheless a majority — say they’ve a good opinion of the Reasonably priced Care Act (ACA), or Obamacare (60%). Whereas its passage and enactment have been embroiled in partisan battles, the general public has constantly held a more favorable than unfavorable view of the ACA since 2018.
Whereas Democratic voters are considerably extra possible than Republican voters to specific favorable views of Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Safety, majorities throughout partisans are favorable in direction of every of those applications. Partisan divisions are extra notable in the case of the ACA, with 9 in ten Democratic voters (90%) holding favorable views of the ACA in comparison with a 3rd (32%) Republican voters – a share that has elevated for the reason that legislation was enacted (in April 2020, just 11% of Republican voters had a favorable view of the law).
Medicare, Social Safety, Medicaid, and the ACA are additionally in style with voters throughout age teams, though voters ages 65 and older are considerably extra possible than youthful voters to specific favorable opinions of Social Safety and Medicare – applications that largely present advantages to older adults. In flip, youthful voters ages 18-29 are extra possible than older voters to have a good opinion of Medicaid.
Way forward for Medicare, Social Safety, and Medicaid
In the case of figuring out the way forward for Social Safety, Medicare, and Medicaid, neither candidate garners a transparent majority of belief amongst voters on all three objects. About 4 in ten voters total say they belief President Biden extra to find out the way forward for Medicare and Medicaid, whereas one-third belief former President Trump extra. Voters are extra evenly break up on the way forward for Social Safety, with 38% who belief Biden extra and 36% for Trump.
Older voters, a key voting bloc and the first beneficiaries of Social Safety and Medicare, usually tend to belief Biden in the case of figuring out the way forward for every program. About half of voters ages 65 and older say they belief Biden extra to find out the way forward for Social Safety (49%), Medicare (49%), and Medicaid (50%), whereas a few third of older voters say they belief Trump extra on every.
Majorities of voters are nervous that, sooner or later, folks lined by Medicare, Social Safety, and Medicaid gained’t be capable to get the identical degree of advantages which might be out there at this time, with a minimum of three in 4 saying they’re a minimum of considerably nervous about this in the case of Social Safety (83%), Medicare (78%), and Medicaid (73%). Whereas giant shares of voters throughout the age spectrum fear about future advantages out there underneath these applications, worries about future advantages underneath Medicare and Social Safety are inclined to peak amongst these ages 50-64, the subsequent age group to turn into eligible for these applications within the coming years. A new report issued by the Medicare and Social Security trustees initiatives each applications could have inadequate funds to pay full advantages in a few decade.
Whereas former President Trump’s remarks on the way forward for entitlement applications have been inconsistent, in some appearances he has criticized the Social Security and Medicare programs, stating that he’ll reduce these applications by focusing on “waste” and “fraud.” Many citizens agree that fraud, waste, and abuse are issues within the nation’s entitlement applications, with over half saying fraud, waste, and abuse are a “main” downside in Medicaid (60%), Medicare (55%), and Social Safety (53%). For context, 58% of adults additionally see fraud, waste, and abuse as a significant downside in personal medical health insurance.
Bigger shares of Republican voters say fraud, waste, and abuse are a “main” downside in Medicare Medicaid, and Social Safety than Democrats, with no variations by partisanship in the case of issues about personal medical health insurance.
Former President Trump has not launched any detailed statements on his plans for the way forward for Medicaid if elected, however his funds proposals as president included plans to cap federal Medicaid spending. Requested which comes nearer to their view of what Medicaid ought to seem like sooner or later, seven in ten voters say “Medicaid ought to largely proceed as it’s at this time, with the federal authorities guaranteeing protection for low-income folks, setting requirements for who states cowl and what advantages folks get, and matching state Medicaid spending because the variety of folks on this system goes up or down.” About three in ten voters (29%) say “Medicaid must be modified in order that as a substitute of matching state Medicaid spending and setting sure necessities for well being protection, the federal authorities limits how a lot it provides states to assist pay for Medicaid and states have better flexibility to determine which teams of individuals to cowl with out federal ensures.”
Majorities of voters throughout gender, age, and racial and ethnic teams agree that Medicaid ought to largely proceed as it’s at this time. Nevertheless, whereas giant shares of Democratic voters (87%) and impartial voters (74%) say they need Medicaid to proceed as it’s at this time, Republican voters are evenly divided, with 50% preferring Medicaid to remain as it’s at this time and 49% saying the federal authorities ought to restrict how a lot it pays states and provides states better flexibility to manage their Medicaid applications.
Underneath the ACA, most states have expanded their Medicaid applications to cowl extra low-income folks. For states that increase their Medicaid program, the federal authorities pays for 90 % of the prices of this growth with the state paying the remaining.
Two-thirds (63%) of voters who dwell in a non-expansion state need their state to increase Medicaid to cowl extra low-income uninsured folks, whereas one-third (36%) would fairly hold Medicaid as it’s at this time. Increasing Medicaid is essentially break up alongside partisan strains, with almost 9 in ten (86%) of Democrats or Democratic-leaning impartial voters who dwell in a state with out Medicaid growth saying they wish to increase Medicaid, in comparison with six in ten (59%) of Republicans or Republican-leaning impartial voters who wish to hold Medicaid as it’s at this time.
Way forward for the ACA
Though a majority of voters now have favorable views of the ACA, attitudes in direction of the legislation total proceed to be marked by partisanship. Three quarters of Republican voters say they’d assist “repealing and changing” the ACA, as do about half of impartial voters. This ballot didn’t take a look at different choices (similar to increasing or scaling again the legislation, which typically produce much lower levels of support for repeal). Earlier polling and previous repeal efforts have proven that public assist for repeal erodes significantly when in style provisions just like the protections for people with pre-existing conditions are put in danger, so whereas these views don’t suggest that repealing the ACA is a political actuality, they do recommend there may be some receptivity amongst Republican voters to “repeal and exchange” as a speaking level. Previous KFF polling has discovered that few voters assume Trump has a plan to exchange the ACA.
Other than views on repeal, there may be majority assist for strengthening one key piece of the ACA: about seven in ten voters (72%) assist extending monetary help for individuals who buy well being protection by way of the ACA market, together with giant majorities of Democratic (90%) and impartial voters (73%) and a smaller majority of Republican voters (57%). Notably, two-thirds (65%) of voters are nervous that sooner or later, folks lined by ACA market insurance coverage will be unable to get the identical degree of advantages which might be out there at this time.
Whereas former President Trump lately said he’s not running to terminate the ACA, he has routinely criticized the legislation, saying he’ll make it “higher” and “cheaper” and unsuccessfully pushed to repeal it throughout his time in workplace. A big majority of voters assume Trump would attempt to both repeal the ACA (50%) or reduce what the legislation does (30%) if he’s re-elected in 2024. About one in eight voters (12%) say they assume he’ll hold the legislation as is and simply 7% say they assume he would attempt to increase what the legislation does. Regardless of the big share of Republican voters saying they’d assist repealing and changing the ACA, Republican voters are much less possible than Democratic voters to say they assume Trump would try to repeal the complete ACA if elected in 2024 (37% v. 67%).
