It’s official. If the present pipeline of latest offers all completes earlier than the tip of this yr, at present focused sizes or bigger, then the disaster bond market will set a brand new report for main issuance in 2024 of roughly $16.54 billion, in keeping with Artemis’ Deal Listing information.
With three new disaster bond issuances having launched to buyers in latest days, the pipeline of cat bonds at present scheduled to finish and settle this yr has built-up to roughly $1.93 billion, Artemis’ Deal Directory shows.
With settled disaster bond issuance already at simply over $14.6 billion, throughout 144A property cat bonds, 144A offers overlaying specialty and different traces of danger, plus non-public cat bond points we’ve tracked, the market is now on track to beat the earlier report set a yr in the past.
2023 noticed a report nearly $16.45 billion of latest cat bonds issued throughout these three classes, which beat the earlier report from 2021 when nearly $14 billion of latest cat bond offers got here to market.
Now, including the roughly $1.93 billion present pipeline of cat bonds scheduled to finish earlier than year-end to the present whole of $14.6 billion, would take the market to a brand new annual issuance report of just about $16.54 billion for full-year 2024.
The chart above reveals the place issuance will finish the yr if each disaster bond within the pipeline accomplished and settled at its present focused dimension, for a complete of $16.54 billion of danger capital to be issued in 2024.
After all, this determine might change, both by rising bigger as a few of the cat bonds within the pipeline get upsized (which is solely attainable).
Additionally attainable although, is that some maybe don’t obtain their targets, or some might probably be delayed and fall into the following yr for settlement.
Nevertheless, with roughly 5 weeks of the yr left to run, there’s nonetheless time for extra new cat bonds to hitch the market pipeline and take the full-year disaster bond issuance for 2024 to an much more spectacular report.
Trying on the classes of disaster bonds we observe at Artemis in our main interactive chart on issuance and the size of the outstanding cat bond market, so 144A property cat bonds, 144A offers overlaying specialty and different traces of danger, plus non-public cat bond points we’ve tracked, there’s one other notable disaster bond market report that now appears set to be achieved.
144A property disaster bond issuance will attain a brand new annual report excessive of simply over $15.44 billion for 2024, if the pipeline completes on the at present focused sizes this yr.
You may analyse disaster bond issuance by yr, because it at present stands, split out by these three categories in another of our interactive charts here.
Issuance of 144A disaster bonds overlaying different traces of enterprise, equivalent to specialty and cyber, will attain $675 million if the pipeline completes as deliberate, which is at present down on the prior yr’s $832 million, however aligned with the 10-year common for this class of offers.
Up to now in 2024, together with the pipeline, we’ve tracked 91 disaster bond points, which is near the report of 95 offers tracked final yr.
In 2024 up to now, we’ve tracked debut disaster bonds from 12 new first-time sponsors which have entered the market, which is barely decrease than the 13 first-time cat bond sponsors that got here to market in 2023.
Lastly, if the pipeline completes as at present deliberate, then the excellent disaster bond market, by Artemis’ reckoning, would attain $48.32 billion, representing cat bond market development of roughly $3.36 billion over the course of 2024.
2024 appears set to be one other banner yr for the disaster bond issuance market and regardless of a heavy maturity schedule, the investor group has responded to sponsors demand for reinsurance and retrocession, to shut on a really spectacular new report quantity of cat bond offers.
The catastrophe bond maturity schedule (view our chart tracking this here) is especially heavy within the first-half of 2025, with over $10 billion slated to mature within the first-half of subsequent yr.
Which implies the cat bond market could wrestle to realize additional development by the first-half of 2025. However the maturity schedule is way decrease for H2 subsequent yr, so it appears there’s each likelihood of additional disaster bond market development throughout the full-year forward.
So, it now appears possible we’ll see a second consecutive report yr of disaster bond market issuance in 2024, which drives dwelling the well being of the cat bond market and the still-growing demand for capital markets protection from sponsors.
The Artemis Deal Directory lists all disaster bond and associated transactions accomplished because the market was shaped within the late 1990’s. The listing additionally lists the cat bonds ready to settle, that are highlighted in inexperienced on the prime of the record.
Download our free quarterly catastrophe bond market reports.
We observe catastrophe bond and related ILS issuance data, essentially the most prolific sponsors in the market, most lively structuring and bookrunning banks and brokers, which risk modellers feature in cat bonds most frequently, plus a lot more.
Find all of our charts and data here, or through the Artemis Dashboard which offers a helpful one-page view of cat bond market metrics.
All of those charts and visualisations are up to date as quickly as a brand new cat bond issuance is accomplished, or as older issuances mature.
