The end result of the 2024 presidential election is settled with Republicans regaining management of the U.S. home and controlling the U.S. Senate, with President-elect Donald Trump set to start a second time period in January 2025. With most votes counted and races referred to as, this evaluation takes a deeper dive into the function that well being care points performed within the 2024 race. Within the first presidential election because the overturning of Roe v. Wade and amid voters’ elevated anxieties concerning the nation’s financial route, well being care points influenced voters’ choices in difficult however rational methods.
Within the 2022 midterm elections, Democratic candidates have been in a position to capitalize on their base’s enthusiasm for safeguarding reproductive rights to encourage turnout in key electoral races. Two years post-Dobbs, voters in 10 states (together with some staunchly Republican states) have been straight voting on poll measures aimed toward increasing or defending abortion entry of their states, presenting an actual take a look at for abortion rights advocates who had seen different conservative states enshrine abortion rights or push again on restrictions via poll initiatives in 2022 and 2023. Nationally, whereas abortion hadn’t risen to a prime marketing campaign situation when President Biden was the Democratic candidate – maybe because of his reticence on the problem – when Vice President Harris turned the nominee, the problem turned extra salient for voters who have been confronted with two very totally different candidates speaking about their positions on reproductive rights. President-elect Trump had efficiently garnered assist from the pro-life contingent of the Republican Occasion because of his Supreme Courtroom appointments who overturned Roe, whereas he repeatedly acknowledged all through his marketing campaign that he was not in favor of passing a nationwide ban. Vice President Harris, however, embraced reproductive freedom as a core marketing campaign situation throughout her brief bid for president.
But, abortion coverage by no means rose to a prime marketing campaign situation for voters. As an alternative, considerations about inflation continued to take middle stage, and candidates on either side of the aisle have been tasked with crafting messages about how they might tackle voters’ financial considerations. Earlier KFF polls before and during the marketing campaign documented the vital function that well being care bills performed in voters’ financial worries.
This evaluation examines the function that abortion coverage and abortion-related state poll initiatives, in addition to the economic system and well being care prices, performed within the 2024 election. In partnership with The Related Press (AP), KFF added supplemental inquiries to AP VoteCast, a survey of round 120,000 voters carried out nationally and in 48 states, to supply a deep dive into how voters have been weighing well being care points as they made their choices. These questions and KFF’s evaluation make clear the function well being care points, together with abortion, performed in shaping the considerations voters delivered to the poll field, in addition to their choices about whether or not to vote and whom to vote for.
Key Findings
- President-elect Trump gained key electoral victories in 4 states the place voters additionally selected to increase or shield abortion entry. Trump garnered small however vital shares of votes from those that voted in favor of poll measures defending abortion entry, together with assist from a few third of those that voted in favor of abortion entry in Missouri and three in ten voters within the battleground states of Nevada and Arizona. Massive shares of pro-Trump, pro-abortion voters say they suppose abortion needs to be authorized, however few say it’s an important issue of their vote. As well as, in Arizona, a considerable share of this group (greater than 1 / 4) are younger males, who’re much less motivated by the problem of abortion than by different points.
- Voters in seven states voted to increase abortion entry via abortion-related poll measures, whereas the poll measures to increase or shield abortion entry failed in Florida, South Dakota, and Nebraska. In Florida, whereas the poll measure failed to succeed in the 60% threshold required to move within the state (57% voted “sure”), it garnered assist from majorities of voters throughout key demographics (together with massive majorities of Democratic voters (93%), Black voters (83%), unbiased voters (72%), girls voters (66%), and Hispanic voters (65%)). Nevertheless, most Florida Republicans opposed the measure (58%). Equally, in Nebraska and South Dakota, massive majorities of Republicans opposed increasing abortion entry – serving to to make sure the poll measures’ defeat. And, whereas majorities of ladies voters in Nebraska voted in favor of increasing abortion rights, a majority of South Dakota girls voters voted towards.
- Nationwide, abortion continued to be a motivating issue for a notable share of ladies voters in 2024. About three in ten girls voters stated abortion coverage was the “single most vital issue” of their vote, together with 44% of Black girls, 39% of Hispanic girls, and one third of ladies voters between the ages of 18 and 44. Black girls and Hispanic girls have been additionally extra possible than White girls to say abortion coverage had a serious affect on their resolution to prove and which candidate they supported. Black and Hispanic girls disproportionately voted for Vice President Harris over President-elect Trump.
- Voters’ financial anxieties have been pervasive all through the 2024 presidential marketing campaign, and 4 in ten (39%) voters stated “the economic system and jobs” was an important situation going through the nation. With this in thoughts, voters additionally stated they have been apprehensive about having the ability to afford many family bills, together with the price of well being care. President-elect Trump garnered majority assist amongst voters who have been most involved with the price of family bills, together with over half (58%) of voters who stated they have been “very involved” about their very own well being care prices – whilst Harris was seen because the extra trusted candidate on well being care. Total, President-elect Trump had a ten-point benefit over Vice President Harris on who voters belief to raised deal with the economic system.
Abortion Poll Initiatives
Within the 2024 election, voters in 10 states have been requested to solid ballots on abortion-related poll measures. In the entire states, the poll measures have been aimed toward defending or increasing abortion entry, whereas Nebraska’s poll additionally included a competing measure curbing abortion rights. Voters in seven states voted to increase abortion entry, whereas the poll measures to increase or shield abortion entry failed in Florida, South Dakota, and Nebraska. To see an entire rationalization of the abortion-related poll measures and the result of the election, take a look at KFF’s dashboard.
About half of voters in every of the ten states stated the result of the abortion poll initiative was “crucial” to them. This consists of majorities of voters who stated they solid their poll in assist of the poll measures in every of the ten states. Voters who have been opposed to the poll measures have been much less possible than their counterparts to say the result of the poll initiative on abortion was “crucial” to them, besides in Nebraska and South Dakota – two states the place the poll measure in search of to increase abortion entry failed. In each these states, majorities of voters on either side of the poll measure stated the result of the measure was “crucial” to them – suggesting that either side have been equally motivated by the potential consequence of those poll measures.
In Florida, the poll measure failed to succeed in the 60% threshold wanted to move. About six in ten Florida voters who voted in favor of increasing abortion entry stated the result of the poll measure was “crucial” to them in comparison with practically half of voters who voted towards the poll measure within the state who stated the identical, suggesting whereas enthusiasm for the result of the poll measure was on the pro-access aspect, it wasn’t sufficient to beat the excessive vote proportion threshold required by Florida regulation.
President-elect Trump gained key electoral victories in 4 states the place voters additionally selected to increase or shield abortion entry. Throughout the ten states with abortion poll measures, Trump garnered small however vital shares of votes from those that voted in favor of poll measures defending abortion entry, together with assist from a few third of those that voted in favor of abortion entry in Missouri and no less than three in ten voters within the battleground states of Nevada and Arizona.
Arizona and Nevada: Two Battleground States
Arizona and Nevada are two swing states that President-elect Trump gained and a majority of voters handed poll measures increasing abortion entry. That is largely because of vital shares of Republican voters in every of the states voting in favor of increasing abortion entry.
Arizona’s Proposition 139 (“Proper to Abortion”) proposed enshrining the best to abortion within the state structure, permitting abortion till fetal viability or at any stage in instances the place the pregnant individual’s well being or life is in danger. The poll measure will add an modification to the Arizona state structure which can present protections just like these in place on the federal stage earlier than Roe v. Wade was overturned. Arizona regulation at present bans abortions after 15 weeks. Majorities of voters throughout age teams and gender voted in assist of Proposition 139, whilst fewer males stated the result of the measure was “crucial” to them. Almost eight in ten Black voters and three in 4 Hispanic voters in Arizona voted in assist for increasing abortion entry, as did practically two in three White voters.
But, the proposition was considered largely via a partisan lens. The overwhelming majority of Democratic voters and people who voted for Kamala Harris within the state additionally voted in assist of the proposition (95% and 94%, respectively). However, most Republicans within the state and people who voted for Donald Trump voted towards the proposition, but about 4 in ten in each teams voted in favor of the measure. Importantly, whereas about three-fourths of Democratic voters and Harris voters within the state stated the result of the poll measure was “crucial” to them, lower than half of unbiased voters, Republican voters, and Trump voters stated the identical.
Nevada’s poll featured the Right to Abortion Initiative, Query 6, which sought to affirm a constitutional proper to abortion as much as fetal viability and after viability in instances the place the pregnant individual’s life or well being is endangered. Much like Arizona, majorities of voters throughout age teams, race and ethnicity, and gender voted in assist of the measure – however with extra variation. For instance, a a lot bigger majority of youthful voters ages 18-29 in Nevada voted in assist of the measure (80%) in comparison with older voters (63%), ages 65 and older. Youthful voters have been additionally twenty factors extra possible than their older counterparts to say the result of the initiative was “crucial” to them. As well as, whereas two-thirds of males voted in assist of the measure, simply 4 in ten stated the result of the initiative was “crucial” to them. Lower than half of white voters stated the result of the initiative was “crucial” to them, whilst two-thirds voted in assist.
The measure handed, receiving assist from over 9 in ten Nevada Democrats (94%) and people who voted for Harris (93%), in addition to practically half of Republicans (46%) and people who voted for Trump (46%). Whereas practically half of Republican voters and Trump voters supported the measure, simply three in ten stated the result of the poll measure was “crucial” to them.
Who Had been the Professional-Trump and Professional-Abortion Voters?
In all 10 states with abortion-related poll measures, a bigger share of voters voted in favor of abortion entry than voted for both presidential candidate. That is largely because of vital shares of Republicans and Democrats voting in favor of the poll measures, suggesting that partisans might agree extra on abortion coverage than on the candidate they need to information nationwide laws on abortion entry. All through the marketing campaign, Trump said that abortion legal guidelines needs to be left to the states and that he didn’t plan on signing a nationwide abortion ban, whereas Harris, however, said she would signal a nationwide regulation to revive the abortions rights set by Roe.
This evaluation focuses on two key battleground states and finds the demographic profile of pro-abortion poll measure voters who additionally voted for President-elect Trump appears very totally different than the Democratic voters who voted in favor of abortion entry by way of how motivated they have been by the problem. But, Trump voters who voted in assist of abortion entry additionally differ from the opposite phase of Republican voters (these against the poll measure) of their views on abortion entry legality.
Younger males signify the most important phase of Trump voters who voted in assist of abortion entry in Arizona. Greater than 1 / 4 (28%) of pro-abortion Trump voters have been males between the ages of 18 and 49, whereas older girls signify the most important phase of Harris voters who voted in assist of abortion entry (31%). Unsurprisingly, partisanship issues quite a bit. Republican males and Republican girls represent practically all of pro-abortion Trump voters.
Trump voters who voted in favor of abortion entry have been a lot much less motivated by the problem of abortion in comparison with Harris voters who supported the poll initiative. Whereas 4 in ten (43%) Harris voters who supported the abortion initiative stated that abortion was the only most vital issue to their vote, only one in seven (15%) pro-abortion Trump voters stated the identical. Whereas massive majorities of Harris supporters who voted for the poll measure stated the problem of abortion impacted whether or not they turned out to vote (81%) and who they voted for (76%), far fewer Trump supporters who voted for abortion entry stated the identical.
When evaluating Trump supporters who voted for and towards the poll measure, supporters of the Arizona abortion initiative tended to be youthful (51% have been beneath age 50 in comparison with 39% of anti-abortion Trump voters). About seven in ten (71%) Trump voters who supported the measure stated abortion needs to be authorized in all or most instances, whereas the massive majority of Trump voters who voted towards the measure stated it needs to be unlawful in all or most instances. Amongst each teams, few (about one in eight) stated abortion was the only most vital issue of their vote.
A number of the identical patterns in Arizona have been additionally current in Nevada, with pro-abortion Harris voters extra prone to price abortion as the only most vital issue than pro-abortion Trump voters, and pro-abortion Trump voters being extra possible than anti-abortion Trump voters to say they suppose abortion needs to be authorized in no less than most instances. In Nevada, there wasn’t as a lot of an age and gender distinction between Harris supporters and Trump supporters who voted in favor of the poll measure, with 18-49 12 months previous males representing a few fifth of every voting group.
Voters in South Dakota, Florida, and Nebraska Rejected Constitutional Amendments Which Would Have Invalidated Present State Bans or Restrictions
For the primary time since voters have been requested to vote on abortion entry because the Dobbs resolution, abortion-related poll measures didn’t move in three states—Florida, Nebraska, and South Dakota. In every of those three states, the views and motivations of Republican voters proved to be vital in figuring out the way forward for abortion entry.
Florida
Florida’s Modification 4, the “Florida Right to Abortion Initiative,” would have amended the state structure to enshrine the best to abortion till the purpose of fetal viability or to guard the mom’s well being. Whereas a majority (57%) of the voters voted in favor of the initiative, it failed to fulfill the 60% supermajority required to move. Due to this fact, Florida’s present 6-week abortion ban will stay in impact within the state.
Whereas the poll measure failed to succeed in the 60% threshold, massive majorities of Democratic voters (93%), Black voters (83%), and unbiased voters (72%) within the state voted in favor. About two-thirds of ladies voters (66%) and Hispanic voters (65%) additionally supported the measure, in addition to six in ten White voters (60%) and male voters (61%). Whereas most Republicans opposed the measure, round 4 in ten (42%) voted in favor.
Nebraska
Nebraska was the one state on this election cycle to have two competing abortion-related poll measures. One, Initiative 434, would have established a elementary proper to abortion till fetal viability or when wanted to guard the life or well being of the pregnant individual at any time throughout being pregnant, whereas Initiative 439, which handed, has amended the structure to ban abortions previous the primary trimester, besides in medical emergencies or when the being pregnant is a results of rape or incest. The state’s current 12 week ban will keep in impact, and the legislature can’t enact any protections past the primary trimester – 14 weeks gestation.
Assist for the 2 poll measures was largely divided alongside partisan strains, with 9 in ten (89%) Democrats supporting the “Proper to Abortion Initiative” and about three-quarters (76%) of Republicans supporting the measure proscribing abortion entry. Amongst unbiased voters, a bigger share supported the measure increasing abortion entry (60%) than the one proscribing abortion entry (42%).
Over half (58%) of male voters in Nebraska voted in favor of the restrictive abortion initiative, whereas related shares (57%) of ladies voters voted in favor of the initiative to increase abortion rights.
South Dakota
South Dakota voters rejected Modification G, which might have amended the state structure in order that the federal government might solely prohibit abortion after the tip of the second trimester, besides when essential to protect the life or well being of the pregnant individual.
4 in ten (41%) voters in South Dakota supported the measure, although there have been pronounced partisan variations. 9 in ten (90%) Democrats, voted in favor of the measure, in comparison with about one in 5 Republican voters together with 1 / 4 (25%) of Republican males and one in 5 (19%) Republican girls. A bigger share of voters, together with six in ten (59%) voters ages 45 and older, voted towards the modification somewhat than in assist. Girls, ages 18-44, have been extra divided with about half saying they voted “sure” (48%), and 52% saying they voted “no.”
Abortion as a Voting Difficulty
Abortion continued to be a motivating issue for a notable share of voters in 2024, particularly a core constituent of the Democratic base – girls. Total, 1 / 4 (25%) of voters stated abortion was the “single most vital” issue to their vote, just like the share in 2022 who stated the Supreme Courtroom overturning Roe v. Wade was an important issue (24%). As well as, about 4 in ten voters (43%) in 2024 stated abortion had a serious affect on their resolution about whether or not to prove, and over half (56%) stated it had a serious affect on which candidates they supported.
Whereas the general share of voters who stated abortion had an affect on their vote is unchanged from the 2022 midterm elections, it ranked properly behind two key elements for voters: the way forward for democracy on this nation and the excessive costs for gasoline, groceries, and different items. Abortion coverage additionally ranked behind the way forward for free speech on this nation and the state of affairs on the U.S.-Mexico border. For Democratic voters, abortion coverage ranked above all different points aside from the way forward for democracy, and Democrats have been greater than twice as possible as Republicans to say abortion coverage was the “single most vital issue” to their vote.
The affect of abortion coverage on voters’ choices stands out amongst sure teams of voters, particularly teams of ladies voters. Three in ten girls voters stated abortion coverage was the “single most vital issue” of their vote, together with 44% of Black girls, 39% of Latina girls, and one third of ladies voters between the ages of 18 and 44. Related shares of school educated girls and girls with out faculty levels stated abortion coverage was the “single most vital issue” of their vote.
As well as, majorities of a number of teams of ladies voters stated abortion coverage had a “main affect” on their resolution to prove and which candidates they supported. Greater than half of ladies ages 18 to 44, Black girls, and Hispanic girls stated abortion coverage had a serious affect on their turnout within the election. Moreover, two thirds or extra of Black girls voters and Hispanic girls voters stated abortion coverage had a serious affect on which candidates they supported. Vice President Harris garnered majority assist amongst Black and Hispanic girls.
Vice President Harris Did Higher Amongst Voters Who Prioritized Abortion
A big majority of voters (69%) who stated abortion was the only most vital issue to their vote supported Vice President Harris. The one different situation that one candidate had such a robust benefit on was amongst those that stated the state of affairs on the U.S.- Mexico border was their most vital issue of their vote, a bunch that overwhelmingly voted for President-elect Trump. Different points, such the way forward for democracy or excessive costs for gasoline, meals, and groceries, have been extra combined with a bonus for Harris on the previous, and Trump on the latter. Voters whose most vital situation when voting was the way forward for free speech on this nation break up between Harris (45%) and Trump (54%).
Well being Care Prices and Different Points
Voters’ financial anxieties have been pervasive all through the 2024 presidential marketing campaign, and 4 in ten (39%) voters stated “economic system and jobs” was an important situation going through the nation. With this in thoughts, voters additionally stated they have been apprehensive about having the ability to afford many family bills, together with the price of well being care. Two-thirds (67%) of voters stated they have been “very involved” about the price of meals and groceries, adopted by greater than half who stated the identical about affording their very own well being care prices (54%). About half of voters stated they have been “very involved” about having the ability to afford the price of their housing (51%) or the price of gasoline (48%).
Total, President-elect Trump had a ten-point benefit over Vice President Harris on who voters belief to raised deal with the economic system. Trump’s benefit on the economic system was current amongst voters, no matter age, however various amongst different teams. For instance, his benefit was bigger amongst White voters and males voters. Hispanic voters have been break up on which candidate they trusted to do a greater job dealing with the economic system, whereas Black voters have been more likely to say they trusted Harris to do a greater job. Girls voters, however, have been additionally break up on which candidate they trusted on the economic system.
Democratic voters predictably gave Harris an enormous benefit and Republican voters gave Trump the benefit, whereas unbiased voters additionally gave Trump the benefit. Fifteen p.c of unbiased voters stated they trusted neither candidate on the economic system.
President-elect Trump garnered majority assist amongst voters who have been most involved with the price of family bills, together with over half (54%) of voters who stated they have been “very involved” about their very own well being care prices – whilst Harris was seen because the extra trusted candidate on well being care. Trump additionally garnered majority assist amongst voters who have been very involved concerning the prices of gasoline (67%), meals (61%), and housing (56%).
